Definitions

Please refer to the main definitions docs to understand the basic functions referenced below.

Targets

• target
  • timeline: 20D2L
  • bins=5, uniformity=10%, 40%, 50%

Meta Models

• Numerai Crypto submissions are cleaned first by:
  • join on the token universe
  • drop nan and duplicate symbols
  • tie-kept-rank each submission
  • fill nans in each submission with 0.5
• Numerai Crypto Stake-Weighted Meta Model (SWMM)
  • Average of cleaned Crypto submissions weighted by each model's share of the total stake for the round
  • The combined predictions are tie-kept ranked

MMC payouts use the SWMM for rounds starting on or after February 18, 2025, as announced on the forum. Earlier rounds used the naive-weighted Meta Model of submissions with at least 1 NMR stake (CNWMMmin1).

Scores

• submissions are cleaned before used in scoring:
  • drop invalid symbols
  • tie-kept rank the submission
  • fill nans with 0.5
• MMC - Meta Model Contribution
  • correlation contribution of a submission, SWMM, and target
  • the submission is neutralized to the SWMM before measuring its covariance with the target; see the MMC calculation
  • the SWMM includes the model being scored, weighted by its stake
  • timeline: 20D2L (+ 2 days data lag)
• CORR - Correlation
  • numerai corr of a submission and target
  • 20 score days w/ 2 days returns lag (+ 2 days data lag)
• SEASON - Season Score
  • for each scoring day, use the CORR and MMC score versions designated for payouts in that round
  • multiply each score by the round's default payout multiplier, independent of a model's selected payout multipliers
  • treat a missing component score as 0, then sum the weighted scores
  • SEASON = (CORR * default CORR multiplier) + (MMC * default MMC multiplier)
  • current formula: SEASON = (CORR * 0.1) + (MMC * 1.0)
  • timeline: 20 score days w/ 2 days returns lag (+ 2 days data lag)