Submissions
Submissions are a vector of floats attempting to predict ranked returns. Predictions must be between 0 and 1 where 0 means lowest return, 0.5 means average return, and 1 means highest return. The targets in our data are meant to train your model to predict these returns.
Submissions are combined into a Meta Model that Numerai uses to trade.
Rounds
Each submission is associated with a "Round" of the tournament.
Each round goes through 4 stages over the span of a month:
- Open: the start of a new round and new live features are released
- Close: the cutoff for when live predictions must be submitted
- Score: the days that submissions are given scores
- Resolve: when final scores and payouts are resolved
A new round starts each day Tuesday through Saturday. A round spans 24 business days, or about one month. Since a new round is created on each of those days, we end up with 24 overlapping rounds at any given time. Here is a visualization of the schedule of tournament rounds:
Visual representation of Rounds 453 - 477 overlapping
Rounds starting Tuesday through Friday are open only for 1 hour, but rounds starting Saturday close on Sunday. Also notice that there are no scores released on Sundays and Mondays. We generally expect rounds to follow this schedule:
| Round | Open Time* | Close Time* | Scores Start | Resolve Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue | Tue 12:00 UTC | Tue 13:00 UTC | Next Sat. | ~31 days later (Fri.) |
| Wed | Wed 12:00 UTC | Wed 13:00 UTC | Next Tue. | ~31 days later (Sat.) |
| Thu | Thu 12:00 UTC | Thu 13:00 UTC | Next Wed. | ~33 days later (Tue.) |
| Fri | Fri 12:00 UTC | Fri 13:00 UTC | Next Thu. | ~33 days later (Wed.) |
| Sat | Sat 12:00 UTC | Sun 14:00 UTC | Next Fri. | ~33 days later (Thu.) |
INFO
Actual open and close times may vary from round to round, but we will always maintain a minimum 1 hour submission window and guarantee that Rounds will open no earlier than 12:00 UTC and end no earlier than 13:00 UTC. The phrase "no earlier" implies rounds actual start/end times can be later.
Making a Submission
To properly compete in the tournament you should submit live predictions in every round.
Here is an example of how to make a submission in Python using NumerAPI:
from numerapi import NumerAPI
import pandas as pd
# Authenticate
napi = NumerAPI("[your api public id]", "[your api secret key]")
# Get current round
current_round = napi.get_current_round()
# Download latest live features
VERSION = "v5.2"
napi.download_dataset(f"{VERSION}/live_{current_round}.parquet")
live_data = pd.read_parquet(f"{VERSION}/live_{current_round}.parquet")
live_features = live_data[[f for f in live_data.columns if "feature" in f]]
# Generate live predictions
live_predictions = model.predict(live_features)
# Format submission
submission = pd.Series(live_predictions, index=live_features.index).to_frame("prediction")
submission.to_csv(f"prediction_{current_round}.csv")
# Upload submission
napi.upload_predictions(f"prediction_{current_round}.csv", model_id="your-model-id")Multiple Submissions
You can upload as many submissions as you would like during this submission window, but only the latest valid submission will be "selected" for scoring and payouts.
Late Submissions
If you miss the submission window of the current round, you are still allowed to upload your submission but it will be considered "late" - it still gets scored, but you cannot stake on it. Late submissions do not impact the Meta Model, the "at-risk" NMR of a late submission is 0, and its does not impact the payout factor for other users (see.
Automation
Model Uploads
The simplest (and most restrictive) way to automate your submissions is to upload your trained model to Numerai. Once uploaded, Numerai will handle generating and submitting predictions for you every day. Use this if you don't like dealing with infrastructure.
See model upload section for more details.
Numerai-CLI
Also known as "Compute Heavy", this is an official self-hosted cloud solution that supports AWS, GCP, or Azure. If you prefer to run your own automation or have a more complex model or pipeline, we recommend using Numerai CLI. We actively support this framework and directly respond to any bug reports / support issues. We have also engineered it to be highly reliable and very low cost.
Read more about this on the Numerai-CLI Github page.
Local Server
If you prefer to keep things on-premises you can go with one of these. They are relatively simple and cheap, but running your own local computer comes with the burden of ensuring reliability and running your own tech support.
- CRON example - scheduling your script to run regularly and detect when to submit
- NGROK example - setup a webhook for Numerai to notify you when to submit
Queued and Delayed Submissions
If you miss the submission window of the current round, your submission will be automatically "queued" for the upcoming round.
Queued submissions turn into on-time submissions immediately after the upcoming round opens. Since the ids of the live data changes every round, Numerai will automatically map your prediction's ids from the previous round to the latest round's ids.
If your pipeline takes too long to run (ie over 24 hours), you may use your predictions generated for the previous round to submit in the current round. Again, since the ids of the live data changes every round, Numerai will automatically map your delayed prediction's ids from the previous round to the latest round's ids.