FAQ
This page answers the questions new users ask most often about how Numerai works and, just as importantly, what Numerai does not do. For step-by-step instructions, start with Getting Started.
What you submit
Do I have to share my model or my code with Numerai?
No. You submit a prediction file - a vector of floats, one value per id in the live data. Numerai receives those numbers and nothing else. Your code, your data, your features, and your trained model stay on your machine. Numerai does not view the code that builds your predictions, and reverse-engineering it from a prediction vector is nearly impossible.
There is exactly one exception, and it is opt-in: if you choose to automate with Model Uploads, you upload a pickled model and Numerai runs it for you, which means Numerai can unpickle and access that model. If you are not comfortable with that, use Numerai CLI or your own infrastructure instead and keep submitting predictions only.
Why would I do this instead of keeping my model proprietary?
Nothing about participating requires you to give up your model - see above. What you are selling is the signal, not the intellectual property behind it. The tournament exists because Numerai cannot hire enough data scientists to build a Meta Model as diverse as thousands of independent participants build, and participants get paid in NMR for predictions that turn out to be good without running a fund, raising capital, or executing trades themselves.
Does Numerai see my data sources?
No, for the same reason. In Signals and Crypto, where you bring your own data, Numerai receives only the submitted signal values.
What you can and cannot invest in
Can I invest in the Meta Model?
No. The Meta Model is not an investment product and there is no way to buy exposure to it. In Numerai and Signals, the Meta Model is not published, it exists to trade the hedge fund's own capital. The one exception is the Numerai Crypto Meta Model, which is published free of charge to participants; note that Numerai's hedge fund does not trade crypto and does not use it.
Can I stake on, invest in, or back another user's model?
No. Staking only works on your own submissions, the entire point is that you are putting your own NMR behind predictions you believe in, which is what makes a stake a credible signal of quality.
What you can do:
- Download Numerai's Benchmark Models predictions.
- Buy predictions from other participants who choose to list them on NumerBay, an independent community marketplace. Only the participants who list predictions for sale are available. You cannot buy any given user's predictions, and Numerai does not endorse, review, or guarantee anything sold there.
In both cases you are submitting and staking under your own model, at your own risk.
Can I invest in the hedge fund?
Not unless you are an accredited investor. If you are, e-mail [email protected]. This is entirely separate from the tournament and from NMR.
Is fund performance disclosed?
No.
NMR
What is NMR?
NMR (Numeraire) is the utility token that powers staking, payouts, and burns. Its only role in the tournament is to be the thing you put at risk on your own predictions: stake NMR on a submission, and after scoring you are paid more NMR for positive scores or have part of your stake burned for negative ones.
See NMR token data for supply figures and Staking for where to buy it.
Does holding NMR give me any ownership or rights over Numerai?
No. NMR is not equity and confers no ownership, no shareholding, no voting or governance rights, no dividends, no revenue or profit share, and no claim on Numerai, on Numerai's hedge fund, on assets under management, or on any fees Numerai earns. Holding or staking NMR does not make you an investor in the fund and does not entitle you to fund performance.
INFO
The opportunity to stake is not an offer by Numerai to participate in an investment contract, a security, a swap based on the return of any financial assets, an interest in Numerai's hedge fund, or in Numerai itself or any fees we earn. Users with different expectations should not stake.
Please read our Terms of Service for further information.
What is NMR's relationship to the hedge fund, then?
It is the settlement asset for the tournament, not a claim on the fund. The tournament and the fund are connected by incentives rather than by ownership: better predictions improve the Meta Model, and Numerai only makes money from predictions when they are correct. Your stake is never lent, spent, or traded by Numerai, and burned NMR is destroyed rather than transferred to Numerai or to anyone else.
Why are payouts in NMR instead of USD?
USD cannot be burned. NMR was designed to be burned and thus can be sent to a null address, making it completely unusable by anyone. This is important because if NMR is burned due to bad performance, you can be sure that the NMR is disappearing, not simply being sent to another user.
The tournament and the fund
What kind of hedge fund does Numerai operate?
A quant global equity market-neutral hedge fund.
Does the fund trade crypto?
No. Numerai hosts the Crypto tournament, but neither Numerai nor its hedge fund trades cryptocurrencies, and nothing from Numerai Crypto feeds the hedge fund.
Do I have to stake?
No. Unstaked submissions are scored exactly like staked ones, so you can build a live track record for free. The difference is that only staked submissions carry weight in the Stake-Weighted Meta Model that the hedge fund trades - see Staking.
Why can't I just trade the predictions myself?
Because the Numerai dataset is obfuscated, you cannot map a prediction back to a stock, so tournament predictions are not tradable outside Numerai. If you want a tournament whose signal you can also trade yourself, see Signals.
Can I lose my score history, or start over?
Your score history is permanent and no action resets it - see Your history is permanent. Creating a new model is the only way to start from zero, and is covered under Starting from zero.